It’ll be a gargantuan task for the St. John’s basketball team on Friday night as they battle top-seed Duke in the Sweet 16 with an Elite 8 berth on the line but its challenge to beat the Blue Devils could boil down to three simple things.
Duke has been nearly unbeatable this season, dropping a total of two games by a combined four points, but have looked mortal in the postseason while dealing with injuries to starting center Patrick Ngongba and point guard Caleb Foster.
The Blue Devils were still able to win three games in three days to capture the ACC Tournament Championship but nearly suffered an embarrassing loss to No. 16 Siena in the Round of 64 before needing a double-digit second half rally to win.
Against TCU, Duke was in a battle for the opening 30 minutes before running the Horned Frogs out of the gym.
St. John’s has taken a slightly different path, dominating its competition in the postseason until the final eight minutes against Kansas when the Red Storm needed to fend off the Jayhawks comeback with a buzzer beating layup from Dylan Darling.
The Johnnies will need one of its best games of the season to hang with the Blue Devils and eventually pull off the upset and we break down three things the Red Storm must do in order to beat Duke.
Make a minimum of 12 3-pointers
In its first two NCAA Tournament games, St. John’s is 21-of-64 (32.8-percent) from 3-point range. The Red Storm connected on 10 triples against Northern Iowa and 11 treys against Kansas. It will have to replicate some of that success against Duke if it wants a chance to win.
The Blue Devils have a lot of rim protection with its front line of Patrick Ngongba, Cameron Boozer, and Maliq Brown and it will be difficult to score at the rim for the Johnnies.
Bryce Hopkins’ 3-point shooting proved to be the difference against Kansas with a career-high six triples, but the Johnnies will need more than Hopkins to beat Duke.
Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon, Oziyah Sellers, and Dylan Darling will have to contribute from the outside if St. John’s wants a chance at pulling off the upset.
Force at least 15 turnovers
If there is one thing that St. John’s has shown it’s elite at it would be forcing turnovers. In its five postseason games it has forced double-digit turnovers four times with the exception being six giveaways from the slow tempo of Northern Iowa.
Duke is dealing with injury issues in its backcourt with the lingering foot issue of Caleb Foster, making his status unknown for Friday’s game and would still likely start Cayden Boozer at point guard. The Blue Devils have also been using Cameron Boozer more on ball in its rotation shuffle.
Regardless of who Duke puts on the floor, the Red Storm defense must be able to create turnovers that lead to easy chances at the other end. The Johnnies forced 16 turnovers against Kansas that led to 18 points.
The Blue Devils also have one of the best defenses in the country and any chance St. John’s can score in transition, which it thrives, will be a major benefit.
Win the free throw line battle
It’s much easier said than done but the free throw line could be the biggest determining factor of Friday’s game. Both teams have thrived at putting pressure on its opposing defenses and getting to the free throw line.
On Duke, nobody does that better than Cameron Boozer and Zuby Ejiofor is the leader for St. John’s.
However, the Red Storm only shot three free throws in the second half against Kansas. Its lack of free throws could be attributed to its reliance on the 3-point shot and not trying to create contact and score inside the paint, but there’s no issue with getting to the line for the Blue Devils.
Duke has attempted 44 free throws through the first two games of the tournament and St. John’s cannot afford to put the Blue Devils at the line and get its star forwards in foul trouble.
Despite all the data and analytics, the team that is able to keep its best players on the floor for the longest period of time feels like it will be the biggest key in winning the game and advancing to the Elite 8.